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Championship
West Brom
0–1Finished
Birmingham
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:30 BST

West Brom v Birmingham match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 51%West Brom win
  • 27%Draw
  • 22%Birmingham win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

West BromWest Brom

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

BirminghamBirmingham

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • West Brom won 24 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Birmingham won 17 of 24 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Aug 2025.
  • Birmingham won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
  • West Brom unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: West Brom 2, draws 2, Birmingham 4

Goals: West Brom 6, Birmingham 10

DateMatchScore
10 Feb 2026Birmingham v West Brom0–0
26 Nov 2025West Brom v Birmingham1–1
3 Feb 2024West Brom v Birmingham1–0
6 Oct 2023Birmingham v West Brom3–1
10 Feb 2023Birmingham v West Brom2–0
14 Sep 2022West Brom v Birmingham2–3
3 Apr 2022Birmingham v West Brom1–0
15 Oct 2021West Brom v Birmingham1–0

Home and away

West Brom

West Brom at home

Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost

  • DrawnQPR12 Sep 20261–1
  • WonWatford5 Sep 20261–0
  • DrawnCharlton2 Sep 20261–1
  • WonBurnley23 Aug 20263–1
  • DrawnIpswich25 Apr 20260–0

West Brom: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 6 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Birmingham

Birmingham away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonDerby12 Sep 20262–1
  • LostNorwich9 Sep 20261–2
  • WonWrexham28 Aug 20262–1
  • DrawnSheffield Utd15 Aug 20260–0
  • WonSwanseaLeague Cup8 Aug 20261–0

Birmingham: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
8 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

West Brom
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
Next match
3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Wrexham · Championship
Birmingham
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship
Next match
3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Preston · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

West Brom

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreWest BromLeague sides
Scored first24 won, 15 drawn, 3 lost in 42 matches1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches
Conceded first3 won, 7 drawn, 28 lost in 38 matches211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches496 won, 162 drawn, 93 lost in 751 matches
Level at half-time7 won, 21 drawn, 12 lost in 40 matches450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches525 won, 167 drawn, 64 lost in 756 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 22 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 24 drawn, 9 lost in 37 matches271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches629 won, 115 drawn, 17 lost in 761 matches
Level after 80 minutes1 won, 27 drawn, 8 lost in 36 matches170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches
Level after 15 minutes18 won, 27 drawn, 24 lost in 69 matches898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes16 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches430 won, 144 drawn, 104 lost in 678 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 23 drawn, 17 lost in 49 matches638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWest BromLeague sides
All matches16 scored, 27 conceded (91)1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 15 conceded (33)336 scored, 365 conceded (1227)
When level after 75 minutes1 scored, 6 conceded (32)316 scored, 316 conceded (1080)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 6 conceded (26)365 scored, 336 conceded (1227)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 16(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Birmingham

Since 8 Aug 2025

ScoreBirminghamLeague sides
Scored first17 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches
Conceded first2 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 28 matches211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches
Level after 15 minutes11 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost in 35 matches898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 27 matches638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBirminghamLeague sides
All matches12 scored, 9 conceded (54)1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 4 conceded (20)365 scored, 336 conceded (1227)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

West BromBirmingham
91Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG54Since 8 Aug 2025
110.88xG for76.09
103Goals scored69
96.39xG against59.31
107Goals conceded67

West Brom

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
West Brom: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at Wolves0.291.950–1
12 Sep 2026v QPR1.220.621–1
9 Sep 2026at Derby0.381.271–0
5 Sep 2026v Watford1.141.261–0
2 Sep 2026v Charlton0.570.391–1
29 Aug 2026at Middlesbrough1.322.551–3
23 Aug 2026v Burnley1.631.183–1
15 Aug 2026at Norwich1.852.962–1
2 May 2026at Sheffield Wednesday1.871.281–2
25 Apr 2026v Ipswich1.301.070–0

Birmingham

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Birmingham: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Middlesbrough1.232.142–2
12 Sep 2026at Derby3.171.112–1
9 Sep 2026at Norwich1.631.011–2
6 Sep 2026v Wolves1.392.472–2
1 Sep 2026v Southampton1.551.021–1
28 Aug 2026at Wrexham1.621.422–1
22 Aug 2026v Bristol City1.981.432–2
15 Aug 2026at Sheffield Utd0.770.290–0
2 May 2026at Portsmouth1.670.741–1
25 Apr 2026v Bristol City1.761.132–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

West BromBirmingham
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
14Points in those matches11
8.74xPts12.64
8.40xG for13.34
12.18xG against10.89

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: West Brom and Birmingham

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • West BromWest BromN. Galves (Knee Injury) · M. Johnston (Broken Leg)
  • BirminghamBirminghamM. Bird (Calf Injury) · T. Gardner-Hickman (Hamstring Injury) · D. Gray (Muscle Injury) · M. Leonard (Achilles Tendon Injury) · S. Wright (Off the roster)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 11:32 BST · not changed since

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