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Championship
West Brom
3–2Finished
Blackburn
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BSTMatchday 11

West Brom v Blackburn match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

West Brom start as favourites with a 44% chance of winning, ahead of Blackburn's 27%. The model expects 2.34 goals across the match, with West Brom projected to create slightly more chances. Blackburn are severely depleted by injuries, with five ruled-out players limiting their options.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 44%West Brom win
  • 29%Draw
  • 27%Blackburn win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

West BromWest Brom

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

BlackburnBlackburn

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • West Brom won 24 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Blackburn won 28 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: West Brom 3, draws 4, Blackburn 3

Goals: West Brom 10, Blackburn 9

DateMatchScore
6 Apr 2026Blackburn v West Brom0–0
9 Aug 2025West Brom v Blackburn1–0
12 Feb 2025West Brom v Blackburn0–2
23 Oct 2024Blackburn v West Brom0–0
13 Jan 2024West Brom v Blackburn4–1
5 Aug 2023Blackburn v West Brom2–1
15 Feb 2023West Brom v Blackburn1–1
14 Aug 2022Blackburn v West Brom2–1
14 Feb 2022West Brom v Blackburn0–0
21 Aug 2021Blackburn v West Brom1–2

Home and away

West Brom

West Brom at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostBirmingham10 Oct 20260–1
  • DrawnQPR12 Sep 20261–1
  • WonWatford5 Sep 20261–0
  • DrawnCharlton2 Sep 20261–1
  • WonBurnley23 Aug 20263–1

West Brom: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 6 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Blackburn

Blackburn away

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonBristol City13 Oct 20261–0
  • DrawnPortsmouth19 Sep 20262–2
  • LostPreston5 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnLincoln1 Sep 20260–0
  • DrawnWolves14 Aug 20262–2

Blackburn: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

West Brom
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Wrexham · Championship
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Preston · Championship
Blackburn
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Wrexham · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

West Brom

ScoreWest BromLeague sides
Scored first24 won, 15 drawn, 3 lost in 42 matches1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches
Conceded first4 won, 7 drawn, 29 lost in 40 matches214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches504 won, 164 drawn, 94 lost in 762 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 21 drawn, 12 lost in 41 matches457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches534 won, 169 drawn, 64 lost in 767 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 22 drawn, 8 lost in 36 matches342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 24 drawn, 9 lost in 37 matches277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches640 won, 117 drawn, 17 lost in 774 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 27 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches
Level after 15 minutes19 won, 27 drawn, 25 lost in 71 matches917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes16 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches434 won, 145 drawn, 106 lost in 685 matches
Level after 30 minutes10 won, 23 drawn, 18 lost in 51 matches651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWest BromLeague sides
All matches18 scored, 27 conceded (93)1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 15 conceded (33)344 scored, 373 conceded (1247)
When level after 75 minutes1 scored, 6 conceded (32)319 scored, 319 conceded (1088)
When trailing after 75 minutes11 scored, 6 conceded (28)373 scored, 344 conceded (1247)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 17(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Blackburn

ScoreBlackburnLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 42 matches1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches
Conceded first4 won, 10 drawn, 31 lost in 45 matches214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches
1 goal up at half-time14 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches504 won, 164 drawn, 94 lost in 762 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 45 matches457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches534 won, 169 drawn, 64 lost in 767 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 15 lost in 35 matches342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches64 won, 169 drawn, 534 lost in 767 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes18 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches560 won, 149 drawn, 44 lost in 753 matches
Level after 70 minutes3 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 29 matches277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes2 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches44 won, 149 drawn, 560 lost in 753 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes18 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches640 won, 117 drawn, 17 lost in 774 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 25 lost in 28 matches17 won, 117 drawn, 640 lost in 774 matches
Level after 15 minutes26 won, 20 drawn, 29 lost in 75 matches917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 17 drawn, 23 lost in 59 matches651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBlackburnLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 27 conceded (93)1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582)
When leading after 75 minutes5 scored, 6 conceded (32)344 scored, 373 conceded (1247)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (24)319 scored, 319 conceded (1088)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (37)373 scored, 344 conceded (1247)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 16(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

West BromBlackburn
93Matches with xG93
112.87xG for106.72
105Goals scored95
99.32xG against115.28
109Goals conceded106

West Brom

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
West Brom: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
13 Oct 2026at Wrexham0.940.382–1
10 Oct 2026v Birmingham1.052.550–1
20 Sep 2026at Wolves0.291.950–1
12 Sep 2026v QPR1.220.621–1
9 Sep 2026at Derby0.381.271–0
5 Sep 2026v Watford1.141.261–0
2 Sep 2026v Charlton0.570.391–1
29 Aug 2026at Middlesbrough1.322.551–3
23 Aug 2026v Burnley1.631.183–1
15 Aug 2026at Norwich1.852.962–1

Blackburn

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Blackburn: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
13 Oct 2026at Bristol City0.151.951–0
10 Oct 2026v Cardiff2.421.052–1
19 Sep 2026at Portsmouth0.591.602–2
12 Sep 2026v Millwall1.231.673–1
8 Sep 2026v Sheffield Utd1.600.471–2
5 Sep 2026at Preston1.092.191–2
1 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.241.460–0
29 Aug 2026v QPR0.921.341–2
22 Aug 2026v Middlesbrough0.911.432–1
14 Aug 2026at Wolves0.822.042–2

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

West BromBlackburn
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
17Points in those matches15
11.14xPts10.20
10.39xG for9.97
15.11xG against15.20

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: West Brom and Blackburn

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • West BromWest Brom
    Ruled out
    N. Galves (Knee Injury) · M. Johnston (Broken Leg)
  • BlackburnBlackburn
    Ruled out
    A. Forshaw (Hip Injury) · M. Litherland (Muscle Injury) · L. Miller (Achilles Tendon Injury) · Y. Ohashi (Hamstring Injury) · Y. Ribeiro (Hamstring Injury)
    Doubtful
    S. Wharton (Achilles Tendon Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:57 BST · not changed since

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