West Ham v QPR match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 9 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 47%West Ham win
- 26%Draw
- 27%QPR win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
West HamLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
QPRLast 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- West Ham won 21 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- QPR won 24 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of West Ham's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
1 meeting: West Ham 0, draws 1, QPR 0
Goals: West Ham 1, QPR 1
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2026 | West Ham v QPRFA Cup | 1–1 AET 2–1 |
Home and away
West HamWest Ham at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- LostFulhamLeague Cup15 Sep 20262–3
- WonWrexham11 Sep 20266–0
- WonDerby5 Sep 20263–0
- WonWolves1 Sep 20264–2
- LostCharlton22 Aug 20261–2
West Ham: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 24 scored, 7 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
QPRQPR away
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnWest Brom12 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnCharlton9 Sep 20260–0
- WonBlackburn29 Aug 20262–1
- WonPortsmouth15 Aug 20263–1
- LostIpswich2 May 20260–3
QPR: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
West Ham- Last match
- 20 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Millwall · Championship
- Next match
- 5 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Lincoln · Championship
QPR- Last match
- 20 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Preston · Championship
- Next match
- 5 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Derby · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
West Ham
| Score | West Ham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 21 won, 8 drawn, 6 lost in 35 matches | 1090 won, 341 drawn, 211 lost in 1642 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 9 drawn, 28 lost in 39 matches | 211 won, 341 drawn, 1090 lost in 1642 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches | 450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 24 matches | 336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 12 drawn, 7 lost in 25 matches | 271 won, 622 drawn, 271 lost in 1164 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 20 matches | 170 won, 694 drawn, 170 lost in 1034 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 15 drawn, 18 lost in 49 matches | 898 won, 728 drawn, 898 lost in 2524 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 38 matches | 638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 2 won, 3 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches | 104 won, 143 drawn, 430 lost in 677 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | West Ham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 26 scored, 30 conceded (77) | 1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3532) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 11 conceded (26) | 336 scored, 365 conceded (1227) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 9 conceded (21) | 316 scored, 316 conceded (1078) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 10 conceded (30) | 365 scored, 336 conceded (1227) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 15(league sides: 1,850 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 821)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
QPR
| Score | QPR | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 24 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 32 matches | 1090 won, 341 drawn, 211 lost in 1642 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 7 drawn, 32 lost in 47 matches | 211 won, 341 drawn, 1090 lost in 1642 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 36 matches | 450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 3 won, 4 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 93 won, 161 drawn, 496 lost in 750 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 11 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 31 matches | 336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 3 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches | 64 won, 166 drawn, 525 lost in 755 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 21 drawn, 3 lost in 33 matches | 271 won, 622 drawn, 271 lost in 1164 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 21 drawn, 2 lost in 28 matches | 170 won, 694 drawn, 170 lost in 1034 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 22 won, 22 drawn, 19 lost in 63 matches | 898 won, 728 drawn, 898 lost in 2524 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 19 drawn, 12 lost in 45 matches | 638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 4 won, 3 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches | 104 won, 143 drawn, 430 lost in 677 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | QPR | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 27 scored, 20 conceded (91) | 1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3532) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 8 conceded (27) | 336 scored, 365 conceded (1227) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 3 conceded (29) | 316 scored, 316 conceded (1078) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 9 conceded (35) | 365 scored, 336 conceded (1227) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 21(league sides: 1,850 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 821)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| West Ham | QPR | |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Matches with xG | 91 |
| 101.34 | xG for | 103.51 |
| 104 | Goals scored | 115 |
| 119.43 | xG against | 109.71 |
| 127 | Goals conceded | 127 |
West Ham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Millwall | 1.87 | 2.68 | 2–2 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | v Wrexham | 2.96 | 0.44 | 6–0 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Bolton | 2.22 | 1.56 | 3–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Derby | 3.79 | 0.11 | 3–0 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Wolves | 2.05 | 0.94 | 4–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Watford | 0.89 | 1.60 | 1–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Charlton | 2.84 | 0.62 | 1–2 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at Burnley | 1.33 | 2.33 | 2–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Leeds | 2.61 | 1.59 | 3–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Newcastle | 0.95 | 1.73 | 1–3 |
QPR
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Preston | 2.54 | 1.50 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at West Brom | 0.62 | 1.22 | 1–1 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Charlton | 1.10 | 0.48 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 1.03 | 2.53 | 0–1 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | v Cardiff | 2.09 | 0.60 | 2–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Blackburn | 1.34 | 0.92 | 2–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Bolton | 1.82 | 0.19 | 0–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Portsmouth | 2.07 | 2.17 | 3–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Ipswich | 0.84 | 2.53 | 0–3 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | v Derby | 2.48 | 1.13 | 2–3 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| West Ham | QPR | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 15 | Points in those matches | 13 |
| 14.81 | xPts | 13.18 |
| 17.95 | xG for | 12.61 |
| 10.28 | xG against | 9.61 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: West Ham and QPR
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 9 Oct 2026, 19:02 BST · not changed since
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