LEDGER
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Championship
West Ham
2–3Finished
Southampton
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BSTMatchday 12 · London Stadium, London

West Ham v Southampton match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

West Ham are marginal favourites against Southampton in the Championship. The model gives the hosts a 54% chance of winning, with expected goals of 1.87 to Southampton's 1.15.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 54%West Ham win
  • 24%Draw
  • 22%Southampton win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

West HamWest Ham

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

SouthamptonSouthampton

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • West Ham won 23 of 36 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 322 of 413.
  • West Ham won 3 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of West Ham's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: West Ham 3, draws 3, Southampton 2

Goals: West Ham 11, Southampton 9

DateMatchScore
25 Aug 2026Southampton v West HamLeague Cup1–4
19 Apr 2025West Ham v SouthamptonPremier League1–1
26 Dec 2024Southampton v West HamPremier League0–1
2 Apr 2023West Ham v SouthamptonPremier League1–0
16 Oct 2022Southampton v West HamPremier League1–1
2 Mar 2022Southampton v West HamFA Cup3–1
26 Dec 2021West Ham v SouthamptonPremier League2–3
11 Sep 2021Southampton v West HamPremier League0–0

Home and away

West Ham

West Ham at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnQPR9 Oct 20261–1
  • LostFulhamLeague Cup15 Sep 20262–3
  • WonWrexham11 Sep 20266–0
  • WonDerby5 Sep 20263–0
  • WonWolves1 Sep 20264–2

West Ham: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
25 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Southampton

Southampton away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonNorwich14 Oct 20261–0
  • LostWrexham19 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnLincoln5 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnBirmingham1 Sep 20261–1
  • LostWatford16 Aug 20261–2

Southampton: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

West Ham
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Swansea · Championship
Next match
7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v West Brom · Championship
Southampton
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Bolton · Championship
Next match
7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v QPR · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 27 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

West Ham

ScoreWest HamLeague sides
Scored first23 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 36 matches1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches
Conceded first2 won, 10 drawn, 28 lost in 40 matches215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 29 matches460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 24 matches342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 26 matches277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches
Level after 15 minutes18 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 51 matches923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 40 matches656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches107 won, 147 drawn, 437 lost in 691 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWest HamLeague sides
All matches28 scored, 30 conceded (79)1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 11 conceded (28)347 scored, 375 conceded (1257)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (22)320 scored, 320 conceded (1094)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 10 conceded (29)375 scored, 347 conceded (1257)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

West HamSouthampton
79Since 27 Oct 2024Matches with xG88Since 26 Oct 2024
106.44xG for120.69
111Goals scored123
120.25xG against143.56
124Goals conceded134

West Ham

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
West Ham: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at Swansea1.211.081–0
14 Oct 2026at Lincoln3.230.396–0
9 Oct 2026v QPR1.441.271–1
19 Sep 2026at Millwall1.872.682–2
11 Sep 2026v Wrexham2.960.446–0
8 Sep 2026at Bolton2.221.563–2
5 Sep 2026v Derby3.790.113–0
1 Sep 2026v Wolves2.050.944–2
29 Aug 2026at Watford0.891.601–1
22 Aug 2026v Charlton2.840.621–2

Southampton

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Southampton: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v Bolton1.911.240–0
14 Oct 2026at Norwich2.161.261–0
11 Oct 2026v Portsmouth1.281.181–0
19 Sep 2026at Wrexham2.080.541–2
12 Sep 2026v Bristol City1.712.244–1
8 Sep 2026v Swansea1.441.223–1
5 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.772.271–1
1 Sep 2026at Birmingham1.021.551–1
29 Aug 2026v Millwall3.621.355–1
22 Aug 2026v Stoke City2.320.933–1

Southampton: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

West HamSouthampton
11 of 11Matches with xG11 of 11
22Points in those matches21
20.54xPts18.42
23.83xG for20.02
13.02xG against14.59

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: West Ham and Southampton

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • West HamWest Ham
    Ruled out
    K. Lamadrid (Injury)
  • SouthamptonSouthampton
    Ruled out
    M. Roerslev Rasmussen (Health problems)
    Doubtful
    F. Downes (Ankle Injury) · C. Larin (Hamstring Injury)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:58 BST · not changed since

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