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Championship
Wolves
1–3Finished
Bolton
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 10

Wolves v Bolton match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 13 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Wolves and Bolton are evenly matched in this Championship clash, with the model seeing roughly equal chances for each outcome. Expected goals total 2.71, suggesting a closely contested low-scoring affair. Wolves are without key striker Jimenez due to injury.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 36%Wolves win
  • 28%Draw
  • 36%Bolton win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

WolvesWolves

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

BoltonBolton

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Head-to-head

Head-to-head data was not available for this match.

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 321 of 409.
  • Wolves unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Wolves's last 10 home league games.

Home and away

Wolves

Wolves at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonWest Brom20 Sep 20261–0
  • WonStoke City29 Aug 20264–1
  • DrawnBlackburn14 Aug 20262–2
  • WonPort ValeLeague Cup7 Aug 20263–0
  • DrawnFulhamPremier League17 May 20261–1

Wolves: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Bolton

Bolton away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonNorwich20 Sep 20264–3
  • LostMillwall5 Sep 20260–4
  • LostSheffield Utd1 Sep 20262–3
  • DrawnQPR22 Aug 20260–0
  • LostSheffield WednesdayLeague Cup8 Aug 20260–1

Bolton: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Wolves
Last match
3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship
Next match
3 days after16 Oct 2026 · v Burnley · Championship
Bolton
Last match
3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Stoke City · Championship
Next match
4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Southampton · Championship

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 20 Oct 2024

WolvesBolton
77Matches with xG—
87.21xG for—
87Goals scored—
110.80xG against—
127Goals conceded—

Wolves

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Wolves: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Middlesbrough0.680.900–1
20 Sep 2026v West Brom1.950.291–0
13 Sep 2026at Sheffield Utd1.570.631–0
6 Sep 2026at Birmingham2.471.392–2
1 Sep 2026at West Ham0.942.052–4
29 Aug 2026v Stoke City2.660.834–1
22 Aug 2026at Preston1.540.663–1
14 Aug 2026v Blackburn2.040.822–2
24 May 2026at Burnley2.090.981–1
17 May 2026v Fulham1.401.591–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

WolvesBolton
8 of 8Matches with xG9 of 9
14Points in those matches10
15.04xPts10.88
13.85xG for12.31
7.57xG against14.56

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Wolves and Bolton

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • WolvesWolves
    Ruled out
    R. Jimenez (Knee Injury) · Y. Mosquera (Ankle Injury) · B. Traore (Injury)
    Doubtful
    R. Gomes (Foot Injury)
  • BoltonBolton
    Ruled out
    C. Forino-Joseph (Groin Injury)

Published 13 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since

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