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Championship
Wolves
3–0Finished
Cardiff
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 GMTMatchday 13 · Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton

Wolves v Cardiff match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Wolves are favoured to win at home with a 55% chance according to the model, while Cardiff have a 20% win probability. Expected goals total 2.84, with Wolves projected to create more attacking threat. Wolves' recent form is mixed with two defeats in five, while Cardiff have recovered with a recent win but remain inconsistent.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 55%Wolves win
  • 25%Draw
  • 20%Cardiff win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

WolvesWolves

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. won1–0v Watford
  2. drew1–1v Portsmouth
  3. won2–1at Burnley
  4. lost1–3v Bolton
  5. lost0–1at Middlesbrough
CardiffCardiff

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. won1–0v Birmingham
  2. drew2–2at Middlesbrough
  3. won5–1v Watford
  4. lost1–2at Blackburn
  5. won3–1v Charlton

Head-to-head

Head-to-head data was not available for this match.

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 326 of 417.
  • Cardiff without a win in their last 5 away games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Wolves's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 8 of Cardiff's last 10 away league games.

Home and away

Wolves

Wolves at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonWatford24 Oct 20261–0
  • DrawnPortsmouth20 Oct 20261–1
  • LostBolton13 Oct 20261–3
  • WonWest Brom20 Sep 20261–0
  • WonStoke City29 Aug 20264–1

Wolves: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Cardiff

Cardiff away

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • DrawnMiddlesbrough17 Oct 20262–2
  • LostBlackburn10 Oct 20261–2
  • LostBolton12 Sep 20260–1
  • LostPortsmouth5 Sep 20260–2
  • LostQPR2 Sep 20261–2

Cardiff: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Wolves
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Watford · Championship
Next match
4 days after4 Nov 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship
Cardiff
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship
Next match
4 days after4 Nov 2026 · v West Ham · Championship

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

WolvesCardiff
79Matches with xG46
91.96xG for57.43
89Goals scored56
111.49xG against66.30
128Goals conceded72

Wolves

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Wolves: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Watford1.880.151–0
20 Oct 2026v Portsmouth0.950.781–1
16 Oct 2026at Burnley2.021.072–1
13 Oct 2026v Bolton2.231.621–3
10 Oct 2026at Middlesbrough0.680.900–1
20 Sep 2026v West Brom1.950.291–0
13 Sep 2026at Sheffield Utd1.570.631–0
6 Sep 2026at Birmingham2.471.392–2
1 Sep 2026at West Ham0.942.052–4
29 Aug 2026v Stoke City2.660.834–1

Cardiff

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Cardiff: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026v Birmingham2.400.911–0
17 Oct 2026at Middlesbrough0.912.782–2
13 Oct 2026v Watford3.671.465–1
10 Oct 2026at Blackburn1.052.421–2
19 Sep 2026v Charlton2.601.263–1
12 Sep 2026at Bolton1.790.480–1
8 Sep 2026v Stoke City2.920.751–1
5 Sep 2026at Portsmouth1.372.070–2
2 Sep 2026at QPR0.602.091–2
29 Aug 2026v Sheffield Utd2.241.282–2

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

WolvesCardiff
12 of 12Matches with xG12 of 12
21Points in those matches14
22.84xPts18.78
20.93xG for22.43
11.19xG against18.55

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Wolves and Cardiff

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • WolvesWolves
    Ruled out
    R. Jimenez (Knee Injury) · G. Konan (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    N. Djiga (Groin Injury) · F. Lopez (Calf Injury) · B. Traore (Injury)
  • CardiffCardiff
    Ruled out
    C. Chambers (Knee Injury) · D. Lawlor (Hamstring Injury) · G. Osho (Red Card)
    Doubtful
    K. Bielik (Inactive) · C. Robinson (Inactive)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since

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