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Championship
Wolves
1–0Finished
Watford
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BSTMatchday 12 · Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton

Wolves v Watford match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Wolves are heavily favoured by the model at 65%, with an expected goals gap of 1.18 in their favour. Watford's recent run of four defeats in five games leaves them vulnerable, though both sides face uncertainty in their squads.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 65%Wolves win
  • 22%Draw
  • 13%Watford win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

WolvesWolves

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

WatfordWatford

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 322 of 413.
  • Watford won 20 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Watford without a win in their last 5 away games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Wolves's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

2 meetings: Wolves 2, draws 0, Watford 0

Goals: Wolves 6, Watford 0

DateMatchScore
10 Mar 2022Wolves v WatfordPremier League4–0
11 Sep 2021Watford v WolvesPremier League0–2

Home and away

Wolves

Wolves at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnPortsmouth20 Oct 20261–1
  • LostBolton13 Oct 20261–3
  • WonWest Brom20 Sep 20261–0
  • WonStoke City29 Aug 20264–1
  • DrawnBlackburn14 Aug 20262–2

Wolves: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Watford

Watford away

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostCardiff13 Oct 20261–5
  • LostBristol City18 Sep 20260–1
  • LostWest Brom5 Sep 20260–1
  • LostSwansea1 Sep 20260–2
  • DrawnWrexham22 Aug 20261–1

Watford: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
5 scored, 25 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Wolves
Last match
4 days before20 Oct 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
Next match
7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Cardiff · Championship
Watford
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Charlton · Championship
Next match
7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Norwich · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Watford

ScoreWatfordLeague sides
Scored first20 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 30 matches1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches
Conceded first8 won, 13 drawn, 36 lost in 57 matches215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 40 matches460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches
1 goal down at half-time5 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 25 matches95 won, 164 drawn, 508 lost in 767 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 29 matches342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 3 drawn, 18 lost in 23 matches65 won, 170 drawn, 539 lost in 774 matches
Level after 70 minutes8 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 19 lost in 24 matches45 won, 151 drawn, 565 lost in 761 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes20 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches645 won, 119 drawn, 17 lost in 781 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 19 lost in 24 matches17 won, 119 drawn, 645 lost in 781 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 20 drawn, 27 lost in 63 matches923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 18 drawn, 18 lost in 47 matches656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes6 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 27 matches107 won, 147 drawn, 437 lost in 691 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWatfordLeague sides
All matches28 scored, 21 conceded (92)1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608)
When leading after 75 minutes5 scored, 6 conceded (26)347 scored, 375 conceded (1257)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 5 conceded (25)320 scored, 320 conceded (1094)
When trailing after 75 minutes15 scored, 10 conceded (41)375 scored, 347 conceded (1257)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 59 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 23(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 26 Oct 2024

WolvesWatford
79Matches with xG92
91.44xG for109.04
90Goals scored101
112.65xG against120.36
130Goals conceded126

Wolves

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Wolves: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Oct 2026v Portsmouth0.950.781–1
16 Oct 2026at Burnley2.021.072–1
13 Oct 2026v Bolton2.231.621–3
10 Oct 2026at Middlesbrough0.680.900–1
20 Sep 2026v West Brom1.950.291–0
13 Sep 2026at Sheffield Utd1.570.631–0
6 Sep 2026at Birmingham2.471.392–2
1 Sep 2026at West Ham0.942.052–4
29 Aug 2026v Stoke City2.660.834–1
22 Aug 2026at Preston1.540.663–1

Watford

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Watford: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v Charlton2.871.312–0
13 Oct 2026at Cardiff1.463.671–5
10 Oct 2026v Burnley0.641.940–4
18 Sep 2026at Bristol City0.521.560–1
12 Sep 2026v Stoke City0.391.501–2
8 Sep 2026v Preston1.262.442–1
5 Sep 2026at West Brom1.261.140–1
1 Sep 2026at Swansea0.882.710–2
29 Aug 2026v West Ham1.600.891–1
22 Aug 2026at Wrexham0.651.921–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

WolvesWatford
11 of 11Matches with xG11 of 11
18Points in those matches11
20.26xPts10.18
19.05xG for12.34
11.04xG against20.79

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Wolves and Watford

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • WolvesWolves
    Ruled out
    R. Gomes (Foot Injury) · R. Jimenez (Knee Injury) · B. Traore (Injury)
    Doubtful
    A. Armstrong (Back Injury)
  • WatfordWatford
    Ruled out
    K. Baah (Knock) · E. Bove (Knee Injury) · J. Ngakia (Thigh Injury)
    Doubtful
    T. Akomeah (Lacking Match Fitness) · M. Antonio (Inactive)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:58 BST · not changed since

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