Wrexham v Preston match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Wrexham are strong favourites to extend their winning run over Preston, with a 55% win probability and an expected attacking advantage. Both teams face significant injury problems that could affect their preparations for this Championship encounter.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 55%Wrexham win
- 25%Draw
- 20%Preston win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
WrexhamLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
PrestonLast 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Wrexham won 16 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
- Preston won 20 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Wrexham won 2 of the last 3 meetings.
- Preston without a win in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
3 meetings: Wrexham 2, draws 1, Preston 0
Goals: Wrexham 6, Preston 4
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec 2025 | Wrexham v Preston | 2–1 |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Preston v Wrexham | 1–1 |
| 26 Aug 2025 | Preston v WrexhamLeague Cup | 2–3 |
Home and away
WrexhamWrexham at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- LostWest Brom13 Oct 20261–2
- WonSouthampton19 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnBurnley8 Sep 20261–1
- LostBirmingham28 Aug 20261–2
- DrawnWatford22 Aug 20261–1
Wrexham: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
PrestonPreston away
Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost
- LostBirmingham13 Oct 20260–4
- DrawnQPR19 Sep 20262–2
- LostWatford8 Sep 20261–2
- LostCharlton29 Aug 20260–1
- LostBolton15 Aug 20261–2
Preston: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 20 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Wrexham- Last match
- 4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v West Brom · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Blackburn · Championship
Preston- Last match
- 4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v West Brom · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Wrexham
Since 9 Aug 2025
| Score | Wrexham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 16 won, 9 drawn, 3 lost in 28 matches | 1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 7 drawn, 13 lost in 25 matches | 214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 37 matches | 917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches | 651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Wrexham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 19 scored, 24 conceded (56) | 1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 12 conceded (23) | 344 scored, 373 conceded (1247) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 19(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Preston
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Preston | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 20 won, 18 drawn, 4 lost in 42 matches | 1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 8 drawn, 32 lost in 44 matches | 214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 13 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches | 504 won, 164 drawn, 94 lost in 762 matches |
| Level at half-time | 7 won, 15 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches | 457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches | 94 won, 164 drawn, 504 lost in 762 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 13 won, 9 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches | 534 won, 169 drawn, 64 lost in 767 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 18 drawn, 8 lost in 33 matches | 342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches | 64 won, 169 drawn, 534 lost in 767 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 13 won, 11 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches | 560 won, 149 drawn, 44 lost in 753 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 19 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches | 277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 16 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 640 won, 117 drawn, 17 lost in 774 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 1 won, 23 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches | 173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 24 drawn, 25 lost in 64 matches | 917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 11 won, 11 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches | 434 won, 145 drawn, 106 lost in 685 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 15 drawn, 19 lost in 43 matches | 651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Preston | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 22 scored, 36 conceded (93) | 1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 16 conceded (31) | 344 scored, 373 conceded (1247) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 11 conceded (32) | 319 scored, 319 conceded (1088) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 9 conceded (30) | 373 scored, 344 conceded (1247) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 18(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Wrexham | Preston | |
|---|---|---|
| 56Since 9 Aug 2025 | Matches with xG | 93Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 65.49 | xG for | 111.25 |
| 80 | Goals scored | 104 |
| 73.81 | xG against | 129.36 |
| 80 | Goals conceded | 129 |
Wrexham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | v West Brom | 0.38 | 0.94 | 1–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Derby | 1.46 | 0.60 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Southampton | 0.54 | 2.08 | 2–1 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | at West Ham | 0.44 | 2.96 | 0–6 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | v Burnley | 1.28 | 1.50 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Swansea | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0–0 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | at Millwall | 0.88 | 0.23 | 3–0 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v Birmingham | 1.42 | 1.62 | 1–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Watford | 1.92 | 0.65 | 1–1 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | at Cardiff | 1.43 | 0.90 | 1–1 |
Preston
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | at Birmingham | 0.49 | 2.24 | 0–4 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Millwall | 0.65 | 1.09 | 0–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at QPR | 1.50 | 2.54 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Lincoln | 0.58 | 0.66 | 0–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Watford | 2.44 | 1.26 | 1–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Blackburn | 2.19 | 1.09 | 2–1 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Bristol City | 1.91 | 1.78 | 1–3 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Charlton | 1.32 | 0.74 | 0–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Wolves | 0.66 | 1.54 | 1–3 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Bolton | 1.12 | 1.10 | 1–2 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Wrexham | Preston | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 11 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 13.07 | xPts | 12.91 |
| 10.42 | xG for | 12.86 |
| 12.22 | xG against | 14.04 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Wrexham and Preston
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- N. Broadhead (Thigh Injury) · L. Cacace (Calf Injury) · M. Cleworth (Muscle Injury) · M. James (Back Injury) · B. Sheaf (Injury) · G. Thomason (Thigh Injury) · J. Windass (Ankle Injury)
- Doubtful
- S. Revan (Hamstring Injury)
- Ruled out
- H. Clarke (Knee Injury) · L. Gibbs (Muscle Injury) · A. McCann (Hamstring Injury) · S. Mills (Red Card) · B. Potts (Ankle Injury)
- Doubtful
- T. Carroll (Ankle Injury) · J. Kenny (Inactive) · C. Wiley (Inactive)
Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:57 BST · not changed since
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