Wrexham v West Brom match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 13 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Wrexham are favoured at 44% to beat West Brom, who have won their last two matches. The model expects 2.47 goals total with Wrexham generating higher expected goals, though they are hampered by four confirmed absences and one doubtful player.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 44%Wrexham win
- 29%Draw
- 27%West Brom win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
WrexhamLast 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat
West BromLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Wrexham won 16 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
- West Brom won 24 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Wrexham's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Wrexham 0, draws 1, West Brom 1
Goals: Wrexham 4, West Brom 5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | West Brom v Wrexham | 2–2 |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Wrexham v West Brom | 2–3 |
Home and away
WrexhamWrexham at home
Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost
- WonSouthampton19 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnBurnley8 Sep 20261–1
- LostBirmingham28 Aug 20261–2
- DrawnWatford22 Aug 20261–1
- DrawnMiddlesbrough2 May 20262–2
Wrexham: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
West BromWest Brom away
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- LostWolves20 Sep 20260–1
- WonDerby9 Sep 20261–0
- LostMiddlesbrough29 Aug 20261–3
- LostNewcastleLeague Cup26 Aug 20262–3
- WonNorwich15 Aug 20262–1
West Brom: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Wrexham- Last match
- 3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Derby · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Preston · Championship
West Brom- Last match
- 3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Blackburn · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Wrexham
Since 9 Aug 2025
| Score | Wrexham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 16 won, 9 drawn, 2 lost in 27 matches | 1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 7 drawn, 13 lost in 25 matches | 212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 36 matches | 906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 10 drawn, 7 lost in 27 matches | 643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Wrexham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 19 scored, 22 conceded (55) | 1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 10 conceded (22) | 338 scored, 367 conceded (1236) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 31 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 19(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
West Brom
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | West Brom | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 24 won, 15 drawn, 3 lost in 42 matches | 1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 7 drawn, 29 lost in 39 matches | 212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 14 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 23 matches | 500 won, 163 drawn, 94 lost in 757 matches |
| Level at half-time | 7 won, 21 drawn, 12 lost in 40 matches | 452 won, 574 drawn, 452 lost in 1478 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 16 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 531 won, 168 drawn, 64 lost in 763 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 5 won, 22 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches | 337 won, 578 drawn, 337 lost in 1252 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 4 won, 24 drawn, 9 lost in 37 matches | 272 won, 626 drawn, 272 lost in 1170 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 16 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 635 won, 116 drawn, 17 lost in 768 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 1 won, 27 drawn, 8 lost in 36 matches | 170 won, 698 drawn, 170 lost in 1038 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 18 won, 27 drawn, 25 lost in 70 matches | 906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 16 won, 7 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches | 432 won, 145 drawn, 105 lost in 682 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 23 drawn, 18 lost in 50 matches | 643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | West Brom | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 16 scored, 27 conceded (92) | 1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 15 conceded (33) | 338 scored, 367 conceded (1236) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 1 scored, 6 conceded (32) | 317 scored, 317 conceded (1084) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 6 conceded (27) | 367 scored, 338 conceded (1236) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 16(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Wrexham | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|
| 55Since 9 Aug 2025 | Matches with xG | 92Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 65.11 | xG for | 111.93 |
| 79 | Goals scored | 103 |
| 72.87 | xG against | 98.94 |
| 78 | Goals conceded | 108 |
Wrexham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Derby | 1.46 | 0.60 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Southampton | 0.54 | 2.08 | 2–1 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | at West Ham | 0.44 | 2.96 | 0–6 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | v Burnley | 1.28 | 1.50 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Swansea | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0–0 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | at Millwall | 0.88 | 0.23 | 3–0 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v Birmingham | 1.42 | 1.62 | 1–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Watford | 1.92 | 0.65 | 1–1 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | at Cardiff | 1.43 | 0.90 | 1–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 1.70 | 2.12 | 2–2 |
West Brom
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Birmingham | 1.05 | 2.55 | 0–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Wolves | 0.29 | 1.95 | 0–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v QPR | 1.22 | 0.62 | 1–1 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | at Derby | 0.38 | 1.27 | 1–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Watford | 1.14 | 1.26 | 1–0 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | v Charlton | 0.57 | 0.39 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Middlesbrough | 1.32 | 2.55 | 1–3 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Burnley | 1.63 | 1.18 | 3–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Norwich | 1.85 | 2.96 | 2–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Sheffield Wednesday | 1.87 | 1.28 | 1–2 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Wrexham | West Brom | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 11 | Points in those matches | 14 |
| 12.26 | xPts | 9.32 |
| 10.04 | xG for | 9.45 |
| 11.28 | xG against | 14.73 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Wrexham and West Brom
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- N. Broadhead (Thigh Injury) · L. Cacace (Calf Injury) · M. Cleworth (Muscle Injury) · G. Thomason (Thigh Injury)
- Doubtful
- S. Revan (Hamstring Injury)
- Ruled out
- N. Galves (Knee Injury) · M. Johnston (Broken Leg)
Published 13 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since
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