How to read a Ledger match page
A Ledger match page gives a statistical model's estimate of how a football match could end, with some context alongside. This page explains each part in plain words.
The estimate
The large number at the top of the page, labelled "Our estimate", is the model's estimated chance of the most likely result: a home win, a draw or an away win. A bar further down shows the estimated chance of all three. The three chances add up to the whole.
The number at the top can be under half. Because there are three possible results, the most likely one often has less than an even chance. It is still more likely than either of the other two on its own, but it is more likely than not that it does not happen.
An estimate is not a promise. It says how often a result would happen across many similar matches, and says nothing certain about the next one. The methodology explains where the figures come from.
Context on the page
Recent form, past meetings between the two teams and injuries are shown for context. They are not inputs to the model, so they do not change the estimate.
Before and after kick-off
A match page is published before kick-off and can be updated until then. At kick-off it is locked and is not changed afterwards.
After the match, the page shows the estimate as it stood at kick-off, labelled "Our estimate before kick-off". A written summary, when there is one, is labelled "Written before kick-off", so it is not read as a comment on the result. In match lists, a finished match shows the favourite's chance before kick-off without naming a result.
Free and PRO
Every analysed match page is free to read, with no account needed: the estimate of each result, recent form, past meetings and injuries. PRO is an optional subscription for the full analysis of each match: the model's estimates for more outcomes, such as total goals and both teams to score, where the goal model has them, and a written preview where one is available.
Glossary
- Estimate
- The model's estimated chance of a result, worked out from past match results.
- Home win, draw, away win
- The three possible results at the end of normal time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are not counted.
- Draw
- Both teams score the same number of goals by the end of normal time, including 0-0.
- Favourite
- The team, or the draw, with the highest estimated chance. Being the favourite does not mean being more likely than not.
- Form
- Each team's most recent results, newest first.
- Head-to-head
- Past meetings between the same two teams.
- Injuries
- Players listed as injured or suspended, when that information is available. Shown for context only.
- Kick-off
- The moment the analysis is locked. The estimate and the written analysis are not changed after it.
- "Bookmaker odds, margin removed"
- A page with this label shows the chances the bookmaker's prices imply instead of the model's estimate. See the methodology.
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