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Championship
Derby
0–1Finished
Stoke City
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BSTMatchday 11

Derby v Stoke City match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Derby are slight favourites in the model's view with a 42% home win probability, but Stoke's 30% chance of an away victory keeps the match competitive. Both teams face injury challenges ahead of this Championship fixture.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 42%Derby win
  • 28%Draw
  • 30%Stoke City win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

DerbyDerby

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

Stoke CityStoke City

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Derby won 28 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Stoke City won 25 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Derby won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Derby without a win in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Derby 3, draws 1, Stoke City 2

Goals: Derby 8, Stoke City 7

DateMatchScore
6 Apr 2026Derby v Stoke City2–0
9 Aug 2025Stoke City v Derby3–1
3 May 2025Derby v Stoke City0–0
2 Nov 2024Stoke City v Derby2–1
30 Dec 2021Stoke City v Derby1–2
18 Sep 2021Derby v Stoke City2–1

Home and away

Derby

Derby at home

Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost

  • DrawnWrexham10 Oct 20261–1
  • LostBirmingham12 Sep 20261–2
  • LostWest Brom9 Sep 20260–1
  • LostSwansea29 Aug 20260–3
  • DrawnCardiff22 Aug 20262–2

Derby: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
11 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Stoke City

Stoke City away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonBolton10 Oct 20262–1
  • WonWatford12 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnCardiff8 Sep 20261–1
  • LostWolves29 Aug 20261–4
  • LostSouthampton22 Aug 20261–3

Stoke City: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
8 scored, 21 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Derby
Last match
3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v QPR · Championship
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship
Stoke City
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Middlesbrough · Championship
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Derby

ScoreDerbyLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 6 drawn, 9 lost in 43 matches1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches
Conceded first2 won, 13 drawn, 31 lost in 46 matches214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches504 won, 164 drawn, 94 lost in 762 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 36 matches457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 6 drawn, 15 lost in 22 matches94 won, 164 drawn, 504 lost in 762 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes12 won, 3 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches534 won, 169 drawn, 64 lost in 767 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 15 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 17 lost in 23 matches64 won, 169 drawn, 534 lost in 767 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes13 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches560 won, 149 drawn, 44 lost in 753 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 14 drawn, 10 lost in 30 matches277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 19 lost in 25 matches44 won, 149 drawn, 560 lost in 753 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes14 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches640 won, 117 drawn, 17 lost in 774 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 26 matches173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 25 lost in 28 matches17 won, 117 drawn, 640 lost in 774 matches
Level after 15 minutes20 won, 18 drawn, 25 lost in 63 matches917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 17 drawn, 16 lost in 47 matches651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches106 won, 145 drawn, 434 lost in 685 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreDerbyLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 31 conceded (93)1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582)
When leading after 75 minutes4 scored, 11 conceded (30)344 scored, 373 conceded (1247)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 13 conceded (30)319 scored, 319 conceded (1088)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 7 conceded (33)373 scored, 344 conceded (1247)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 54 times, equalised within 15 minutes 13, by full time 27(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Stoke City

ScoreStoke CityLeague sides
Scored first25 won, 9 drawn, 7 lost in 41 matches1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches
Conceded first4 won, 6 drawn, 32 lost in 42 matches214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 14 drawn, 19 lost in 44 matches457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 18 drawn, 13 lost in 37 matches342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 21 drawn, 11 lost in 39 matches277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches44 won, 149 drawn, 560 lost in 753 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 21 drawn, 8 lost in 34 matches173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches
Level after 15 minutes21 won, 21 drawn, 23 lost in 65 matches917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches
Level after 30 minutes16 won, 16 drawn, 21 lost in 53 matches651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreStoke CityLeague sides
All matches19 scored, 32 conceded (93)1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 9 conceded (26)344 scored, 373 conceded (1247)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 11 conceded (34)319 scored, 319 conceded (1088)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (33)373 scored, 344 conceded (1247)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 19(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

DerbyStoke City
93Matches with xG93
102.21xG for100.73
112Goals scored103
113.62xG against139.04
122Goals conceded122

Derby

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Derby: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
14 Oct 2026at QPR1.022.051–4
10 Oct 2026v Wrexham0.601.461–1
19 Sep 2026at Burnley1.750.451–1
12 Sep 2026v Birmingham1.113.171–2
9 Sep 2026v West Brom1.270.380–1
5 Sep 2026at West Ham0.113.790–3
1 Sep 2026at Portsmouth0.550.842–0
29 Aug 2026v Swansea0.703.000–3
22 Aug 2026v Cardiff1.621.982–2
15 Aug 2026at Charlton1.000.971–2

Stoke City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Stoke City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
13 Oct 2026v Middlesbrough0.652.572–3
10 Oct 2026at Bolton0.743.132–1
19 Sep 2026v Sheffield Utd0.650.362–1
12 Sep 2026at Watford1.500.392–1
8 Sep 2026at Cardiff0.752.921–1
5 Sep 2026v Charlton2.140.614–0
1 Sep 2026v Norwich0.581.441–0
29 Aug 2026at Wolves0.832.661–4
22 Aug 2026at Southampton0.932.321–3
15 Aug 2026v Swansea0.650.621–2

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

DerbyStoke City
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
6Points in those matches16
10.18xPts10.14
9.73xG for9.42
18.09xG against17.02

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Derby and Stoke City

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • DerbyDerby
    Ruled out
    P. Agyemang (Achilles Tendon Injury) · E. Cashin (Inactive) · M. Clarke (Calf Injury) · C. Forsyth (Knee Injury) · S. Langas (Injury) · D. Murkin (Hamstring Injury) · C. Taylor (Injury) · J. Widell Zetterstrom (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Johnston (Inactive)
  • Stoke CityStoke City
    Ruled out
    A. Ampah (Knee Injury) · A. Cresswell (Knee Injury) · S. Gallagher (Injury) · S. Ingelsson (Muscle Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:57 BST · not changed since

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