Derby v Wrexham match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 44%Derby win
- 27%Draw
- 29%Wrexham win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
DerbyLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
WrexhamLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Derby won 28 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Wrexham won 16 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 9 Aug 2025.
- Derby without a win in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Derby 0, draws 1, Wrexham 1
Goals: Derby 2, Wrexham 3
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | Derby v Wrexham | 1–2 |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Wrexham v Derby | 1–1 |
Home and away
DerbyDerby at home
Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost
- LostBirmingham12 Sep 20261–2
- LostWest Brom9 Sep 20260–1
- LostSwansea29 Aug 20260–3
- DrawnCardiff22 Aug 20262–2
- LostLincolnLeague Cup8 Aug 20261–2
Derby: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
WrexhamWrexham away
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- LostWest Ham11 Sep 20260–6
- DrawnSwansea5 Sep 20260–0
- WonMillwall2 Sep 20263–0
- DrawnCardiff17 Aug 20261–1
- LostMiddlesbroughLeague Cup7 Aug 20260–1
Wrexham: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Derby- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Burnley · Championship
- Next match
- 4 days after14 Oct 2026 · v QPR · Championship
Wrexham- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Southampton · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v West Brom · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Derby
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Derby | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 28 won, 5 drawn, 9 lost in 42 matches | 1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 13 drawn, 30 lost in 45 matches | 211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 16 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost in 24 matches | 496 won, 162 drawn, 93 lost in 751 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 36 matches | 450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 6 drawn, 15 lost in 22 matches | 93 won, 162 drawn, 496 lost in 751 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 12 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost in 22 matches | 525 won, 167 drawn, 64 lost in 756 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 15 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches | 336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 5 drawn, 17 lost in 23 matches | 64 won, 167 drawn, 525 lost in 756 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 13 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches | 553 won, 147 drawn, 43 lost in 743 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 14 drawn, 10 lost in 30 matches | 271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 5 drawn, 19 lost in 25 matches | 43 won, 147 drawn, 553 lost in 743 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 629 won, 115 drawn, 17 lost in 761 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 26 matches | 170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 25 lost in 28 matches | 17 won, 115 drawn, 629 lost in 761 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 20 won, 18 drawn, 24 lost in 62 matches | 898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 17 drawn, 16 lost in 47 matches | 638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches | 104 won, 144 drawn, 430 lost in 678 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Derby | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 19 scored, 30 conceded (91) | 1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 10 conceded (29) | 336 scored, 365 conceded (1227) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 13 conceded (30) | 316 scored, 316 conceded (1080) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 7 conceded (32) | 365 scored, 336 conceded (1227) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 13, by full time 27(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Wrexham
Since 9 Aug 2025
| Score | Wrexham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 16 won, 9 drawn, 2 lost in 27 matches | 1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 24 matches | 211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 36 matches | 898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 10 drawn, 7 lost in 27 matches | 638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Wrexham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 18 scored, 22 conceded (54) | 1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 10 conceded (22) | 336 scored, 365 conceded (1227) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 30 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 18(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Derby | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| 91Since 19 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 54Since 9 Aug 2025 |
| 100.59 | xG for | 63.65 |
| 110 | Goals scored | 78 |
| 110.11 | xG against | 72.27 |
| 117 | Goals conceded | 77 |
Derby
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Burnley | 1.75 | 0.45 | 1–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Birmingham | 1.11 | 3.17 | 1–2 |
| 9 Sep 2026 | v West Brom | 1.27 | 0.38 | 0–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at West Ham | 0.11 | 3.79 | 0–3 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | at Portsmouth | 0.55 | 0.84 | 2–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Swansea | 0.70 | 3.00 | 0–3 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Cardiff | 1.62 | 1.98 | 2–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Charlton | 1.00 | 0.97 | 1–2 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Sheffield Utd | 2.11 | 1.85 | 1–2 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | at QPR | 1.13 | 2.48 | 3–2 |
Wrexham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Southampton | 0.54 | 2.08 | 2–1 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | at West Ham | 0.44 | 2.96 | 0–6 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | v Burnley | 1.28 | 1.50 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Swansea | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0–0 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | at Millwall | 0.88 | 0.23 | 3–0 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v Birmingham | 1.42 | 1.62 | 1–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Watford | 1.92 | 0.65 | 1–1 |
| 17 Aug 2026 | at Cardiff | 1.43 | 0.90 | 1–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 1.70 | 2.12 | 2–2 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | at Coventry | 1.25 | 1.58 | 1–3 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Derby | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 5 | Points in those matches | 10 |
| 8.71 | xPts | 10.25 |
| 8.11 | xG for | 8.58 |
| 14.58 | xG against | 10.68 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Derby and Wrexham
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 10 Oct 2026, 13:58 BST · not changed since
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