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Championship
Millwall
4–1Finished
Derby
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 GMTMatchday 13 · The Den, London

Millwall v Derby match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Millwall hold a 49% chance of victory with an expected goals advantage of 0.52, while Derby are hampered by a five-game winless run and extensive injury absences particularly in defence. The Lions have won two of the three recent head-to-head matches. Expected total output is 2.52 goals, with Millwall's expected 1.52 goals exceeding Derby's 1.0.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 49%Millwall win
  • 28%Draw
  • 23%Derby win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

MillwallMillwall

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

  1. lost1–2at Portsmouth
  2. drew2–2v Lincoln
  3. lost0–1v Swansea
  4. won1–0at Preston
  5. drew2–2v West Ham
DerbyDerby

Last 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats

  1. drew1–1at Sheffield Utd
  2. lost0–1v Stoke City
  3. lost1–4at QPR
  4. drew1–1v Wrexham
  5. drew1–1at Burnley

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Millwall won 38 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
  • Derby won 28 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Millwall won 3 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Derby's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Millwall 3, draws 3, Derby 0

Goals: Millwall 7, Derby 4

DateMatchScore
10 Mar 2026Millwall v Derby1–0
10 Dec 2025Derby v Millwall1–1
22 Feb 2025Derby v Millwall0–1
19 Oct 2024Millwall v Derby1–1
23 Feb 2022Derby v Millwall1–2
6 Nov 2021Millwall v Derby1–1

Home and away

Millwall

Millwall at home

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnLincoln17 Oct 20262–2
  • LostSwansea13 Oct 20260–1
  • DrawnWest Ham19 Sep 20262–2
  • LostNewcastleLeague Cup8 Sep 20260–1
  • WonBolton5 Sep 20264–0

Millwall: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Derby

Derby away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnSheffield Utd24 Oct 20261–1
  • LostQPR14 Oct 20261–4
  • DrawnBurnley19 Sep 20261–1
  • LostWest Ham5 Sep 20260–3
  • WonPortsmouth1 Sep 20262–0

Derby: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 20 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Millwall
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship
Derby
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Norwich · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Millwall

Since 3 Nov 2024

ScoreMillwallLeague sides
Scored first38 won, 9 drawn, 5 lost in 52 matches1122 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1690 matches
Conceded first4 won, 9 drawn, 24 lost in 37 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1122 lost in 1690 matches
1 goal up at half-time20 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches512 won, 165 drawn, 95 lost in 772 matches
Level at half-time16 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 42 matches463 won, 582 drawn, 463 lost in 1508 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes18 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches544 won, 171 drawn, 65 lost in 780 matches
Level after 60 minutes14 won, 15 drawn, 6 lost in 35 matches343 won, 586 drawn, 343 lost in 1272 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes20 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches570 won, 152 drawn, 45 lost in 767 matches
Level after 70 minutes10 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 30 matches278 won, 634 drawn, 278 lost in 1190 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes21 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches648 won, 120 drawn, 17 lost in 785 matches
Level after 80 minutes10 won, 16 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches175 won, 706 drawn, 175 lost in 1056 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches17 won, 120 drawn, 648 lost in 785 matches
Level after 15 minutes36 won, 15 drawn, 20 lost in 71 matches928 won, 744 drawn, 928 lost in 2600 matches
Level after 30 minutes27 won, 14 drawn, 18 lost in 59 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreMillwallLeague sides
All matches31 scored, 30 conceded (94)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3632)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 8 conceded (37)350 scored, 377 conceded (1266)
When level after 75 minutes14 scored, 8 conceded (30)323 scored, 323 conceded (1100)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 14 conceded (27)377 scored, 350 conceded (1266)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,903 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Derby

Since 2 Nov 2024

ScoreDerbyLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 6 drawn, 9 lost in 43 matches1122 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1690 matches
Conceded first2 won, 11 drawn, 32 lost in 45 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1122 lost in 1690 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost in 26 matches512 won, 165 drawn, 95 lost in 772 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 35 matches463 won, 582 drawn, 463 lost in 1508 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches95 won, 165 drawn, 512 lost in 772 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes12 won, 4 drawn, 8 lost in 24 matches544 won, 171 drawn, 65 lost in 780 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches343 won, 586 drawn, 343 lost in 1272 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 18 lost in 23 matches65 won, 171 drawn, 544 lost in 780 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes13 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches570 won, 152 drawn, 45 lost in 767 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 27 matches278 won, 634 drawn, 278 lost in 1190 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 20 lost in 26 matches45 won, 152 drawn, 570 lost in 767 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches648 won, 120 drawn, 17 lost in 785 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches175 won, 706 drawn, 175 lost in 1056 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 3 drawn, 26 lost in 29 matches17 won, 120 drawn, 648 lost in 785 matches
Level after 15 minutes20 won, 17 drawn, 26 lost in 63 matches928 won, 744 drawn, 928 lost in 2600 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 47 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreDerbyLeague sides
All matches19 scored, 31 conceded (92)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3632)
When leading after 75 minutes4 scored, 12 conceded (31)350 scored, 377 conceded (1266)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (27)323 scored, 323 conceded (1100)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 7 conceded (34)377 scored, 350 conceded (1266)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 25(league sides: 1,903 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

MillwallDerby
94Since 3 Nov 2024Matches with xG92Since 2 Nov 2024
121.77xG for101.97
115Goals scored110
115.21xG against113.31
108Goals conceded121

Millwall

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Millwall: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Portsmouth0.730.911–2
17 Oct 2026v Lincoln1.870.752–2
13 Oct 2026v Swansea1.051.820–1
10 Oct 2026at Preston1.090.651–0
19 Sep 2026v West Ham2.681.872–2
15 Sep 2026at Middlesbrough1.691.522–2
12 Sep 2026at Blackburn1.671.231–3
5 Sep 2026v Bolton2.650.954–0
2 Sep 2026v Wrexham0.230.880–3
29 Aug 2026at Southampton1.353.621–5

Derby

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Derby: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Sheffield Utd1.152.551–1
17 Oct 2026v Stoke City1.070.620–1
14 Oct 2026at QPR1.022.051–4
10 Oct 2026v Wrexham0.601.461–1
19 Sep 2026at Burnley1.750.451–1
12 Sep 2026v Birmingham1.113.171–2
9 Sep 2026v West Brom1.270.380–1
5 Sep 2026at West Ham0.113.790–3
1 Sep 2026at Portsmouth0.550.842–0
29 Aug 2026v Swansea0.703.000–3

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

MillwallDerby
12 of 12Matches with xG12 of 12
15Points in those matches7
19.45xPts12.52
21.10xG for11.95
15.74xG against21.26

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Millwall and Derby

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • MillwallMillwall
    Ruled out
    T. Arconte (Ankle Injury) · J. Coburn (Muscle Injury) · C. De Norre (Muscle Injury) · L. Jensen (Muscle Injury) · F. Marschall (Injury) · M. Servais (Inactive)
    Doubtful
    M. Luongo (Knee Injury)
  • DerbyDerby
    Ruled out
    P. Agyemang (Achilles Tendon Injury) · E. Cashin (Inactive) · M. Clarke (Calf Injury) · C. Forsyth (Knee Injury) · S. Langas (Injury) · D. Murkin (Hamstring Injury) · D. Sanderson (Red Card) · C. Taylor (Injury) · L. Travis (Ankle Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 13:58 GMT · not changed since

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