Championship4–1Finished

Derby

Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 10

QPR v Derby match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Wed 14 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

QPR are favoured at home with a 41% win probability against Derby, who arrive in poor form with no wins in their last five matches. The model expects around 2.56 goals, with QPR holding a marginal 0.18 advantage in expected goals despite both teams operating with injury concerns.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

41%QPR win
28%Draw
31%Derby win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

QPR

Last 5: no wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat

Derby

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

QPR won 24 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
Derby won 28 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
Over 2.5 goals in 7 of QPR's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: QPR 3, draws 0, Derby 3

Goals: QPR 9, Derby 7

Date	Match	Score
25 Apr 2026	QPR v Derby	2–3
25 Oct 2025	Derby v QPR	1–0
14 Feb 2025	QPR v Derby	4–0
5 Oct 2024	Derby v QPR	2–0
18 Apr 2022	QPR v Derby	1–0
29 Nov 2021	Derby v QPR	1–2

Home and away

QPR

QPR at home

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

DrawnPreston19 Sep 20262–2
LostMiddlesbrough5 Sep 20260–1
WonCardiff2 Sep 20262–1
DrawnBolton22 Aug 20260–0
DrawnMillwallLeague Cup8 Aug 20261–1 PEN

QPR: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 15 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 7 of 10
Clean sheets: 2 of 10

Derby

Derby away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

DrawnBurnley19 Sep 20261–1
LostWest Ham5 Sep 20260–3
WonPortsmouth1 Sep 20262–0
LostCharlton15 Aug 20261–2
WonQPR25 Apr 20263–2

Derby: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 12 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 6 of 10
Clean sheets: 2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

QPR

Last match: 5 days before9 Oct 2026 · v West Ham · Championship
Next match: 3 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship

Derby

Last match: 4 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Wrexham · Championship
Next match: 3 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Stoke City · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

QPR

Score	QPR	League sides
Scored first	24 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 33 matches	1104 won, 345 drawn, 213 lost in 1662 matches
Conceded first	8 won, 7 drawn, 32 lost in 47 matches	213 won, 345 drawn, 1104 lost in 1662 matches
Level at half-time	11 won, 16 drawn, 9 lost in 36 matches	455 won, 574 drawn, 455 lost in 1484 matches
1 goal down at half-time	3 won, 4 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches	94 won, 164 drawn, 502 lost in 760 matches
Level after 60 minutes	11 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 31 matches	341 won, 578 drawn, 341 lost in 1260 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes	3 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches	64 won, 169 drawn, 532 lost in 765 matches
Level after 70 minutes	9 won, 22 drawn, 3 lost in 34 matches	275 won, 626 drawn, 275 lost in 1176 matches
Level after 80 minutes	5 won, 22 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches	172 won, 698 drawn, 172 lost in 1042 matches
Level after 15 minutes	22 won, 23 drawn, 19 lost in 64 matches	912 won, 732 drawn, 912 lost in 2556 matches
Level after 30 minutes	14 won, 19 drawn, 12 lost in 45 matches	648 won, 626 drawn, 648 lost in 1922 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes	4 won, 3 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches	105 won, 145 drawn, 434 lost in 684 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	QPR	League sides
All matches	27 scored, 20 conceded (92)	1032 scored, 1032 conceded (3572)
When leading after 75 minutes	8 scored, 8 conceded (27)	342 scored, 372 conceded (1243)
When level after 75 minutes	9 scored, 3 conceded (30)	318 scored, 318 conceded (1086)
When trailing after 75 minutes	10 scored, 9 conceded (35)	372 scored, 342 conceded (1243)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 21(league sides: 1,872 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 831)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Derby

Score	Derby	League sides
Scored first	28 won, 6 drawn, 9 lost in 43 matches	1104 won, 345 drawn, 213 lost in 1662 matches
Conceded first	2 won, 13 drawn, 30 lost in 45 matches	213 won, 345 drawn, 1104 lost in 1662 matches
1 goal up at half-time	16 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches	502 won, 164 drawn, 94 lost in 760 matches
Level at half-time	9 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 36 matches	455 won, 574 drawn, 455 lost in 1484 matches
1 goal down at half-time	1 won, 6 drawn, 15 lost in 22 matches	94 won, 164 drawn, 502 lost in 760 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes	12 won, 3 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches	532 won, 169 drawn, 64 lost in 765 matches
Level after 60 minutes	7 won, 15 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches	341 won, 578 drawn, 341 lost in 1260 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes	1 won, 5 drawn, 17 lost in 23 matches	64 won, 169 drawn, 532 lost in 765 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes	13 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches	559 won, 149 drawn, 44 lost in 752 matches
Level after 70 minutes	6 won, 14 drawn, 10 lost in 30 matches	275 won, 626 drawn, 275 lost in 1176 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes	1 won, 5 drawn, 19 lost in 25 matches	44 won, 149 drawn, 559 lost in 752 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes	14 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches	638 won, 117 drawn, 17 lost in 772 matches
Level after 80 minutes	6 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 26 matches	172 won, 698 drawn, 172 lost in 1042 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes	0 won, 3 drawn, 25 lost in 28 matches	17 won, 117 drawn, 638 lost in 772 matches
Level after 15 minutes	20 won, 18 drawn, 24 lost in 62 matches	912 won, 732 drawn, 912 lost in 2556 matches
Level after 30 minutes	14 won, 17 drawn, 16 lost in 47 matches	648 won, 626 drawn, 648 lost in 1922 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes	0 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches	105 won, 145 drawn, 434 lost in 684 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Derby	League sides
All matches	19 scored, 31 conceded (92)	1032 scored, 1032 conceded (3572)
When leading after 75 minutes	4 scored, 11 conceded (30)	342 scored, 372 conceded (1243)
When level after 75 minutes	7 scored, 13 conceded (30)	318 scored, 318 conceded (1086)
When trailing after 75 minutes	8 scored, 7 conceded (32)	372 scored, 342 conceded (1243)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 13, by full time 27(league sides: 1,872 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 831)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

QPR		Derby
92	Matches with xG	92
104.78	xG for	101.19
116	Goals scored	111
111.15	xG against	111.57
128	Goals conceded	118

QPR

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

QPR: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
9 Oct 2026	at West Ham	1.27	1.44	1–1
19 Sep 2026	v Preston	2.54	1.50	2–2
12 Sep 2026	at West Brom	0.62	1.22	1–1
9 Sep 2026	at Charlton	1.10	0.48	0–0
5 Sep 2026	v Middlesbrough	1.03	2.53	0–1
2 Sep 2026	v Cardiff	2.09	0.60	2–1
29 Aug 2026	at Blackburn	1.34	0.92	2–1
22 Aug 2026	v Bolton	1.82	0.19	0–0
15 Aug 2026	at Portsmouth	2.07	2.17	3–1
2 May 2026	at Ipswich	0.84	2.53	0–3

Derby

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Derby: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026	v Wrexham	0.60	1.46	1–1
19 Sep 2026	at Burnley	1.75	0.45	1–1
12 Sep 2026	v Birmingham	1.11	3.17	1–2
9 Sep 2026	v West Brom	1.27	0.38	0–1
5 Sep 2026	at West Ham	0.11	3.79	0–3
1 Sep 2026	at Portsmouth	0.55	0.84	2–0
29 Aug 2026	v Swansea	0.70	3.00	0–3
22 Aug 2026	v Cardiff	1.62	1.98	2–2
15 Aug 2026	at Charlton	1.00	0.97	1–2
2 May 2026	v Sheffield Utd	2.11	1.85	1–2

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

QPR		Derby
9 of 9	Matches with xG	9 of 9
14	Points in those matches	6
14.44	xPts	9.43
13.88	xG for	8.71
11.05	xG against	16.04

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: QPR and Derby

Corners won and concededPRO
Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
First-half goals, scored and concededPRO

PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

QPR
Ruled out
I. Chair (Muscle Injury) · K. Dembele (Knee Injury)
Doubtful
R. Burrell (Inactive)
Derby
Ruled out
P. Agyemang (Achilles Tendon Injury) · M. Clarke (Calf Injury) · C. Forsyth (Knee Injury) · D. Murkin (Hamstring Injury) · C. Taylor (Injury) · J. Widell Zetterstrom (Knee Injury)

Published 14 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since

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