Championship1–1Finished

Derby

Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:30 BSTMatchday 12 · Bramall Lane, Sheffield

Sheffield Utd v Derby match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Sheffield Utd are slight favourites at home with a 51% chance of winning, while Derby face this match with significant injury problems across their squad. The model expects 2.7 goals in total, with Sheffield Utd projected to create more chances.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

51%Sheffield Utd win
26%Draw
23%Derby win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Sheffield Utd

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Derby

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

Sheffield Utd won 38 of 56 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
Derby won 28 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
Sheffield Utd won 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Sheffield Utd's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

7 meetings: Sheffield Utd 5, draws 0, Derby 2

Goals: Sheffield Utd 8, Derby 7

Date	Match	Score
2 May 2026	Derby v Sheffield Utd	1–2
1 Nov 2025	Sheffield Utd v Derby	1–3
1 Feb 2025	Derby v Sheffield Utd	0–1
21 Sep 2024	Sheffield Utd v Derby	1–0
15 Jan 2022	Derby v Sheffield Utd	2–0
25 Sep 2021	Sheffield Utd v Derby	1–0
24 Aug 2021	Sheffield Utd v DerbyLeague Cup	2–1

Home and away

Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

WonLincoln10 Oct 20263–0
LostWolves13 Sep 20260–1
LostNorwich5 Sep 20261–3
WonBolton1 Sep 20263–2
DrawnBirmingham15 Aug 20260–0

Sheffield Utd: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 16 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 8 of 10
Clean sheets: 2 of 10

Derby

Derby away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

LostQPR14 Oct 20261–4
DrawnBurnley19 Sep 20261–1
LostWest Ham5 Sep 20260–3
WonPortsmouth1 Sep 20262–0
LostCharlton15 Aug 20261–2

Derby: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 13 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 7 of 10
Clean sheets: 2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Sheffield Utd

Last match: 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship
Next match: 6 days after30 Oct 2026 · v Wrexham · Championship

Derby

Last match: 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Stoke City · Championship
Next match: 7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Millwall · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Sheffield Utd

Score	Sheffield Utd	League sides
Scored first	38 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 56 matches	1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches
Conceded first	8 won, 4 drawn, 24 lost in 36 matches	215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches
1 goal up at half-time	16 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost in 26 matches	508 won, 164 drawn, 95 lost in 767 matches
Level at half-time	18 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 39 matches	460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes	15 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches	539 won, 170 drawn, 65 lost in 774 matches
Level after 60 minutes	13 won, 9 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches	342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes	21 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches	565 won, 151 drawn, 45 lost in 761 matches
Level after 70 minutes	7 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches	277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes	23 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 27 matches	645 won, 119 drawn, 17 lost in 781 matches
Level after 80 minutes	3 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 21 matches	174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes	2 won, 0 drawn, 18 lost in 20 matches	17 won, 119 drawn, 645 lost in 781 matches
Level after 15 minutes	31 won, 12 drawn, 27 lost in 70 matches	923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
Level after 30 minutes	27 won, 10 drawn, 15 lost in 52 matches	656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Sheffield Utd	League sides
All matches	21 scored, 26 conceded (95)	1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608)
When leading after 75 minutes	12 scored, 13 conceded (47)	347 scored, 375 conceded (1257)
When level after 75 minutes	4 scored, 9 conceded (21)	320 scored, 320 conceded (1094)
When trailing after 75 minutes	5 scored, 4 conceded (27)	375 scored, 347 conceded (1257)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 18(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Derby

Score	Derby	League sides
Scored first	28 won, 5 drawn, 9 lost in 42 matches	1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches
Conceded first	2 won, 12 drawn, 32 lost in 46 matches	215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches
1 goal up at half-time	16 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost in 25 matches	508 won, 164 drawn, 95 lost in 767 matches
Level at half-time	9 won, 13 drawn, 14 lost in 36 matches	460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches
1 goal down at half-time	1 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches	95 won, 164 drawn, 508 lost in 767 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes	12 won, 3 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches	539 won, 170 drawn, 65 lost in 774 matches
Level after 60 minutes	7 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches	342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes	1 won, 5 drawn, 18 lost in 24 matches	65 won, 170 drawn, 539 lost in 774 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes	13 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches	565 won, 151 drawn, 45 lost in 761 matches
Level after 70 minutes	6 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 28 matches	277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes	1 won, 5 drawn, 20 lost in 26 matches	45 won, 151 drawn, 565 lost in 761 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes	14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches	645 won, 119 drawn, 17 lost in 781 matches
Level after 80 minutes	6 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches	174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes	0 won, 3 drawn, 26 lost in 29 matches	17 won, 119 drawn, 645 lost in 781 matches
Level after 15 minutes	20 won, 17 drawn, 26 lost in 63 matches	923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
Level after 30 minutes	14 won, 16 drawn, 17 lost in 47 matches	656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Derby	League sides
All matches	19 scored, 30 conceded (92)	1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608)
When leading after 75 minutes	4 scored, 11 conceded (30)	347 scored, 375 conceded (1257)
When level after 75 minutes	6 scored, 12 conceded (28)	320 scored, 320 conceded (1094)
When trailing after 75 minutes	9 scored, 7 conceded (34)	375 scored, 347 conceded (1257)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 54 times, equalised within 15 minutes 13, by full time 26(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 26 Oct 2024

Sheffield Utd		Derby
95	Matches with xG	92
138.91	xG for	101.45
139	Goals scored	110
112.97	xG against	111.84
112	Goals conceded	121

Sheffield Utd

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Sheffield Utd: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026	at Bristol City	1.23	0.58	1–0
14 Oct 2026	at Portsmouth	1.80	2.01	2–3
10 Oct 2026	v Lincoln	0.68	1.39	3–0
19 Sep 2026	at Stoke City	0.36	0.65	1–2
13 Sep 2026	v Wolves	0.63	1.57	0–1
8 Sep 2026	at Blackburn	0.47	1.60	2–1
5 Sep 2026	v Norwich	0.79	3.04	1–3
1 Sep 2026	v Bolton	2.21	1.91	3–2
29 Aug 2026	at Cardiff	1.28	2.24	2–2
22 Aug 2026	at Swansea	1.46	0.57	0–0

Derby

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Derby: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026	v Stoke City	1.07	0.62	0–1
14 Oct 2026	at QPR	1.02	2.05	1–4
10 Oct 2026	v Wrexham	0.60	1.46	1–1
19 Sep 2026	at Burnley	1.75	0.45	1–1
12 Sep 2026	v Birmingham	1.11	3.17	1–2
9 Sep 2026	v West Brom	1.27	0.38	0–1
5 Sep 2026	at West Ham	0.11	3.79	0–3
1 Sep 2026	at Portsmouth	0.55	0.84	2–0
29 Aug 2026	v Swansea	0.70	3.00	0–3
22 Aug 2026	v Cardiff	1.62	1.98	2–2

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Sheffield Utd		Derby
11 of 11	Matches with xG	11 of 11
15	Points in those matches	6
11.76	xPts	11.89
11.20	xG for	10.80
16.33	xG against	18.71

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Sheffield Utd and Derby

Corners won and concededPRO
Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
First-half goals, scored and concededPRO

PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Sheffield Utd
Ruled out
M. Doherty (Injury) · J. Shackleton (Health problems)
Derby
Ruled out
P. Agyemang (Achilles Tendon Injury) · E. Cashin (Inactive) · M. Clarke (Calf Injury) · C. Forsyth (Knee Injury) · S. Langas (Injury) · D. Murkin (Hamstring Injury) · C. Taylor (Injury) · L. Travis (Ankle Injury) · J. Widell Zetterstrom (Knee Injury)
Doubtful
M. Johnston (Inactive) · A. Mowatt (Health problems)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 11:28 BST · not changed since

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